Why Google+ Will Take Half of the Social Networking Market from Facebook (or “There Calacanis Goes Again”)

By Jason Calacanis

A year and a half ago, while hosting an unsanctioned -- but very lucrative -- poker game at the TED conference in Long Beach, I wrote the worst prediction of my career.

In a blog post titled “Google Buzz is brilliant, Facebook just lost half its value,” I gushed over BUZZ, Google’s very impressive second stab at social networking. Their first, Orkut, was a Friendster-like service that was serviceable, but not something folks would consider wildly innovative.

BUZZ was wildly innovative because, like the recently funded Color social network, it created what I’ve dubbed the “implied social network” (ISN) from your most emailed users. This was a brilliant, but dangerous, gamble. Your contact list is a great place to start building a social network -- except in the event that you’ve been in a flame war with your abusive ex-husband.

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Balloon Makes Audience Participation at Events Better for Organizers and Attendees -- Finally

WHAT: Get the audience at live events more involved with moderated questions and comments, polls and surveys. Attendees can use Twitter, text messages and email to interact with those on stage. Event organizers can track engagement on the back end.

Balloon’s iPhone app -- which includes gaming elements like points for questions asked, leaderboards, etc. -- will debut in mid-July.

LAUNCHERS:  Andrei Vestemeanu (CEO), Romain David (marketing) and Guillaume Potier (CTO). Guillaume previously started a company that developed iPhone apps, first company for Andrei and Romain.

WHY: Passing around a mic during Q&A is inefficient (especially when someone hogs it). Old-fashioned keypad systems are expensive to rent and don’t work well. Plus event organizers don’t have tools to measure which audience members are most engaged and on which topics or with which speakers.

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WhatWasThere Launches Historical Photo Overlay to Show Google Maps Its Future

WHAT: See today’s streets as they were decades or a century ago. WhatWasThere overlays historical photos on Google Streetview so you can slide between past and present. The iPhone app shows historical photos based on your location. Images come from from museums, libraries and archives that have granted free permission, as well from public collections and those users upload.

Larger picture: tie content to location and put it in context.

LAUNCHERS: Steve Glauberman, founder and CEO of digital agency Enlighten, along with Laurel Erickson, Adam Kempa, Karen Ford, Voratima Orawannukul and Mike Gatto.

WHY: “Born out of a desire to preserve history knowing that everyone has a lot of old photos,” says Steve. Not to mention the fun of comparing past/present views of places you know.

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Targeting Mom and Pop: Lendio Matches Small Business Owners and Lenders

WHAT: Matches small business owners (SBOs) with the loans/lenders that best fit their profile. Lendio works with over 3,000 banks and credit unions nationwide.

LAUNCHER: Brock Blake, CEO.

WHY: The small-business lending market is inefficient: approval rates are typically around 10% and a loan can take months. Also, SBOs generally don’t know the range of loan products available and often don’t look beyond their local banks, which may not offer the type of loan they need. Lendio’s approval rate is 50% to 70%.

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Sign Documents with a Photo: Vignature Challenges E-Signature Model

WHAT: Legally sign documents by taking a photo of yourself with your phone or webcam. Vignature must detect a face before accepting the photo. The document owner can decide whether to accept the image.

LAUNCHERS:  Matt Spradley (CEO) and Kelly Spradley (CMO), who sold their first company in 2009, and Scott Roberts (CTO). [Matt and Kelly are married.]

WHY: Webcams are common, and front-facing cameras on smartphones have become the norm. Photos provide better a reference/audit trail than traditional electronic signatures, which often require a password/login and rely on an IP address.

BACKSTORY: Matt and Kelly wanted to include an electronic-signature tool in their website solution service for lawyers, Impirus. They soon realized Vignature had massive potential -- people spend $8B a year to get documents signed -- while Impirus would always be niche. In February, they entered the Tech Wildcatters accelerator in Dallas and built two products (plus filed patents for them) in three months.

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